Delta strain caused an absolute death record in Moscow

Delta strain caused an absolute death record in Moscow
Delta strain caused an absolute death record in Moscow
Anonim

In July 2021, three quarters more people died in the capital than in July 2019, the last dock. Even in comparison with July 2020, when the epidemic was already underway here, the Moscow mortality rate increased sharply.

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The Moscow Department of Health has published data on mortality in the capital for the past month. There were 17,237 deaths recorded. In July last year, there were only 10773 of them. The excess of mortality - 6464 cases.

The Department of Healthcare notes that almost all excess mortality is attributed to the coronavirus. According to him, in July, 6,583 Muscovites had COVID-19 as the main or concomitant cause of death. It became the main cause of death in 6145 people. In another 438 people, it was a concomitant cause of death. Of these 438 cases, the coronavirus had a significant impact on the development of the underlying disease and its fatal complications in 193 deaths.

As the independent demographer Alexey Raksha notes, 17,237 deaths in July is an absolute record in the entire history of the city, and this is even more than in June 2021. However, speaking "for the entire history of the city", we mean the documented (for example, World War II) history. In some periods, such as the Civil War, there were no full-fledged statistics of deaths by month in the city.

Compared to the last dock July, 2019, mortality increased by 76.7% - more than three quarters. Thus, the percentage increase in mortality is also a record one. For example, in June 2021, the excess of mortality over June 2019 was 72.1%. In December 2020, at the peak of the second wave of coronavirus in Moscow, the increase compared to December 2019 was only 60.4%. “It turns out that the third wave in Moscow is even worse than the second,” the scientist states.

It should be noted that the situation in Moscow is not yet the worst in Russia. In July 2021, the mortality rate in the Novosibirsk region exceeded July 2019 by 98.6%. In Buryatia - by 90, 9%, and so on. The main reason for such strong outbreaks was the spread of the coronavirus delta strain. Its base reproductive number - the number of people that one patient can infect - is estimated at 5-8. This is more than twice that of the original coronavirus and equal to that of smallpox. It was due to the increase in the infectivity of the delta strain that he was able to give an outbreak of respiratory disease in the summer months, when it was very difficult for an ordinary covid.

However, this does not mean that the epidemic potential of the delta strain in Moscow (not to mention Russia) has been exhausted. In fact, the virus still has everything to come. From the experience of the same smallpox it is known that its outbreaks are possible both in the summer and winter months, but in the cold they spread somewhat faster.

In addition, the complacency of the Russian population in terms of vaccination plays into the hands of the coronavirus. Today, only 32.4 million people are fully vaccinated with both components, of which several hundred thousand are "EpiVacKorona", which, as we have already written, does not work. That is, there are actually even fewer people vaccinated, since EpiVacCorona recipients are vaccinated only on paper, and in real life they are not protected from anything. At the moment, the average daily rate of vaccination in Russia is only 262,749 people, which is much lower than the average rate of vaccination in July 2021 (when the authorities forced some of the population to be vaccinated).

This is a very low rate, notably below the average daily vaccination rate in poor countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, if in the latter it comes from material poverty (which does not allow them to acquire more), then in Russia it comes from poverty of a different kind. The production of Sputnik in the country is over 0.5 million doses, which is twice the consumption.In July of this year, the rate of vaccination was kept above 0.5 million people, that is, technically, many more people can be vaccinated. But in practice there is no chance of this: as we already wrote, a significant part of the population is anti-virus, and nothing can be done about it.

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It is interesting that Moscow is one of the most problematic cities in the country in terms of vaccination. Here there are 4,539,902 vaccinated with at least one dose (35.9% of the population), which is noticeably lower than in Chechnya (40.4% of the population), in Chukotka (40.7% of the population), and even more so in the Belgorod region (44, 1% of the population, the leader in Russia). Even worse, the average daily number of newly vaccinated people in Moscow is only 16677 people. This means that vaccination of 70% of the population here will be achieved in more than six months - that is, when the six-month protective period of vaccination expires in those 35, 9% who are vaccinated now. That is, at the current rate of vaccination, the capital will never reach a real 70% vaccine protection at all.

An additional problem is the low number of revaccinations, which means that already vaccinated citizens by the fall and winter will often be defenseless against covid. As we already wrote, six months after any antikoid vaccine, the level of antibodies drops, and only the cellular memory of immunity will be preserved. But against the delta strain, it does not help much, because it manages to hit the lungs faster than in the three days required for cellular memory to raise the level of antibodies to the required level.

To date, only 98,908 residents of Russia have been revaccinated, of which 74,486 are in the army, where this is done by order. However, six months ago (February 14, 2021), 267,849 residents of Russia were already vaccinated with both components, of which 70% are civilians. That is, no more than 10% of civilians received revaccination. It is clear from this that the overwhelming majority of our fellow citizens are not revaccinated outside the conditions of army compulsion. This means that by the fall we will have millions (if not tens of millions) of people who consider themselves protected, but in practice are already deprived of protection from illness or hospitalization (however, cellular immunity will still reduce their chances of dying).

All this creates an almost ideal situation for a powerful fourth coronavirus wave in Russia. Only one thing is unclear: will it kill more Muscovites and residents of the country as a whole than the third, or will the July 2021 record remain unresolved? We will soon find out the answer to this question.

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